1. A top three who should score runs - Cook and Trott can score big and Root has shown a similar appetite for Yorkshire
2. Graeme Swann - Turning pitches against left-handers is Swann's wet dream. Showed against New Zealand he's lost none of his skill but has a worrying act of getting injured at the minute
3. An excellent home record in Tests - South Africa might have won here but ignoring them, the last side were India in 2007, nine series ago
3 reasons Australia might cause an upset
1. Michael Clarke - An absolute run machine. Since the start of 2012 he has scored 1960 runs from 15 match with an average of 85.21. That includes three double hundreds (two of which came against South Africa) and a triple against India. He has defied the South African pace attack and the spin of India in their own conditions. His only weakness is his back
2. Michael Clarke (just kidding)
3. A good pace attack - Starc, Pattinson, Siddle, Harris, Faulkner, Bird and Watson. Maybe not quite as good as England's but they are all good bowlers. England have struggled against left-armers as well
4. History - The 1989 tourists were dubbed the 'worst side ever to leave Australia' just like the current lot are. They ended up winning 4-0
Bets
Some selected odds from Lambrokes:
Phil Hughes to go the whole series without scoring a run against spin - 45/1
Phil Hughes to get dropped mid-series - 1/2
Shane Watson to not hit a hundred - 2/1
Michael Clarke to score over 50% of Australia's runs - 10/1
Ricky Ponting to get a re-call - 25/1
Australia to use more than two opening partnerships - 30/1
England to remain unchanged throughout all five Tests - 3/1
Australia to go into a Test without a recognised spinner - Evens
David Warner to get in a fight on the field - 500/1
England - a summary
As Andrew Strauss wrote last weekend, it's an unusual move for coach Andy Flower to change his opening partnership just before a major Test series, but Nick Compton has been removed for Joe Root. This is one potential area of concern, as a struggle for Root could damage his confidence. Other personnel concerns are about Steven Finn as the third bowler with his pace and accuracy struggling.
Those who think England will run away with the series should see the Tests against New Zealand as a warning. It just takes another injury to Graeme Swann or Kevin Pietersen, or Jimmy Anderson breaking down, and that optimism will be dampened.
One thing which has been picked up is a failure to score big totals like the ones posted against Australia and India a couple of years ago. The win in India was led by Cook and Pietersen with the bat but against New Zealand it was often the middle and lower-middle order which came to the rescue. Similar problems again could prove disastrous.
Australia - a summary
It's hard to know where to begin with Australia. A couple of weeks ago they were a laughing stock, but suddenly they seem to be getting their confidence back under Darren Lehmann. Still, even if the problems with homework and David Warner's behaviour may have been wiped from the slate, a batting line-up which is desperate for Clarke to score runs could struggle badly, especially if the captain's back flares up again.
A new opening batsman in Chris Rogers, lots of places up for grabs and a spinner who cannot secure his place, Australia are deserved underdogs. But a long list of excellent pace bowlers who can all bat and recent performances in Tests (India aside) shows this is a side who cannot be underestimated. Conditions at Trent Bridge will be conducive to a result if the weather is dodgy, and Australia could spring a surprise.
Player by player guide:
Here is how the rankings system works:
0 – Kesteven
1 – Horrendous
2 – Shocker
3 – Why always me?
4 – Liability
5 – Distinctly average
6 – Pretty, pretty, pretty… pretty good
7 – Gary Neville orgasm
8 – Shares in Kleenex have doubled
9 – Needs boning right now
10 – Babies were born on the back of his performances
England:
Alastair Cook: 8.5 - A talisman in big oversees wins but finds it harder against the moving ball at home. Fair to say he has good memories of playing Australia
Joe Root: 7 - Has done everything asked of him so far in his career and now has a Test hundred to his name, but will have to make another step up to prove he should have been picked over Nick Compton. His off-spin could prove useful if pitches turn
Jonathan Trott: 8.5 - England's Mr Reliable would normally be a definite 9, but his standards have dipped slightly. His average since 2012 is 42.45, not because his form has dropped but because he has not been converting starts into hundreds like he used to. In this period he hit nine 50s and two hundreds but that also includes a number of other starts which he failed to convert. Like Cook he often struggles against left-hand seamers which might explain why he did not score big against New Zealand
Kevin Pietersen: 8 - Like Cook and Trott he has scored big runs against Australia and looks in excellent touch once again. Assuming he is fully fit, expect probably one match winning innings, if not a consistent number
Ian Bell: 7 - It may have gone under the radar but Bell should feel his place in the side is under threat. From the start of 2012 he averages 32.07 with one hundred and once more he is getting out cheaply, a problem which he looked to have sorted out. A couple of quiet Tests and even his excellent fielding at short leg might not be enough to keep him in the side
Jonny Bairstow: 6.5 - A lack of cricket both this winter and since the New Zealand Tests have hampered his progress but he is a good counter-attacking player and has shown already he has the bottle for the big stage
Matt Prior: 8.5 - After the winter his rating would have been even higher but an uncharacteristically poor summer so far, with few runs and unusual errors behind the stumps, have seen him slip from his normally incredible standards
Stuart Broad: 8 - Like Pietersen a man who will normally win you a match but might not deliver Test after Test. Showed his best form two years ago against India when he was all over their batsmen and England fans will hope for a repeat
Graeme Swann: 9 - Quite simply, in my opinion, the one player England cannot afford to lose. A match winner with the ball, useful with the bat and an excellent slip catcher, England look extremely vulnerable when the off-spinner is not there
James Anderson: 9 - Alongside Swann as the player England need most. Possibly the most skilled bowler in world cricket (if not the best) he will fancy his chances against the Australian openers before Swann starts wheeling away
Steven Finn: 7 - A worrying loss of form means Finn can not be relied upon here, but his pace and knack of picking up wickets will probably give him the edge over Tim Bresnan. Will need a quick start, though, with the more versatile Yorkshireman back to full fitness and form
The Finn/Bresnan/Onions debate: Finn has the pace, the height and the knack of picking up wickets. Bresnan is accurate, can reverse the ball and bat. Onions is an excellent stump-to-stump bowler and is effective against left-handers. If the pitch is dry and rough I'd lean towards Bresnan and if it's green then Onions. Finn's form is a concern but he would still be a decent choice if selected.
Australia (probable line-up):
Shane Watson: 8 - A Test batting average of 35.34 is misleading. Watson finds it difficult to hit hundreds, with his last coming at Mohali in October 2010, 20 Tests ago. But few players survive the new ball as well as him, and considering the fragility of the Aussie batting line-up (and the importance to protect Michael Clarke) putting Watson back to the top of the order is a shrewd move. If Lehmann can coax the best from him with bat and ball, Watson could be on of the stars of the series. Early indications are good if his runs against Somerset and Worcestershire are to go by
Chris Rogers: 7 - Cricket Australia haven't got much right recently, but picking the Middlesex opener is an exception. A first-class average of 50, a domestic average of 65.83 this season, and plenty of experience opening in England, Rogers is the perfect choice alongside Watson. Taking that record to the international stage, though, will not be easy
Ed Cowan: 6.5 - A dogged batsman who sells his wicket dearly, Cowan was well liked by previous coach Mickey Arthur but is not a scorer of big runs. Has scored for Nottinghamshire this summer, but showed his failings with four fifties and no hundreds. Will probably keep his place in the team even if it's in a different position to one he is used to
Phil Hughes: 6 - The biggest enigma of Australian cricket, Hughes has a suspect technique which saw him dropped last time he was here. In five Tests against England he has scored just 154 runs with a top score of 36. In India he at one staged faced 39 consecutive balls against spin, scoring no runs and being dismissed four times.
Hughes has pedigree though, with back-to-back hundreds in South Africa and runs against Sri Lanka in the Australian summer. England bowlers will be glad to see him, though
Michael Clarke: 9 - His batting has already been mentioned but his captaincy is also very good. He won in the West Indies declaring behind in the first innings and in India he declared his side's first innings at 237-9 just to get a few overs at the Indian openers on the first evening. Like Brendon McCullum, Clarke will attack England at all opportunities
Steven Smith: 6.5 - A late addition to the side after Warner's suspension and Clarke's back problems, Smith is only meant to be with the tourists until the second Test but could gatecrash the side. Scored 133 for Australia A against Ireland and 161 from four innings in India. Runs against Worcestershire will only have helped his cause. Is seen as a batsman but bowls handy leg-spin
Peter Siddle: 8 - Often underrated by those outside Australia, Siddle will steam in all day, give the batsmen no respite and can take wickets with the new and old ball. Siddle proved himself as the leader of the attack when he bowled himself to exhaustion in Adelaide where he tried to take the final South African wickets, and he did well in the last two Tests in India.
Siddle's Test average of 28.84 is pretty good and in his two series against England he has averaged 30.8 and 34.56. Also useful with the bat (he top scored with half centuries in both innings of the final Test in India), Siddle will almost certainly keep his place despite a slow start to the tour
Mitchell Starc: 8.5 - A potential superstar. Similar to Mitchell Johnson in name, bowling action and the way he plays the game, Starc seems to be the better bet to be a mainstay of the Australian side. After one successful Test against India and the West Indies, Starc really announced himself in another of his one-Test series, this time against the number one ranked side in the world at Perth. Clean bowling Alviro Peterson and Jacques Kallis in successive overs with inswinging deliveries, Starc could repeat Johnson's performance against England at Perth from the last Ashes series if the ball swings. Likewise, he can prove expensive if conditions are not in his favour.
Starc is also probably the most talented tail-end batsman from either side. He averages over 32 with the bat from his nine Tests, including 68* from 64 balls against South Africa and an incredible 99 in the dust bowls of India
James Pattinson: 8 - Like Starc, Pattinson is 23 and is another who can become a world star. His bowling average from 10 Tests is 23.37 and he impressed with his pace against India. Like Starc (and indeed Siddle) he can bowl 90+ mph and has an excellent yorker. Again, as with Starc, he has suffered from injuries but has been back to full health and could be a big threat with ball in hand. Like his fellow bowlers he is also more than handy with the willow
Nathan Lyon: 6.5 - Sorry to say but Lyon is the weak link of the Australian side. He is not a bad bowler, as his average of 33.18 shows, but it is clear that his own team do not rate him. Dropped after one Test in the spinners' paradise of India, the attempt to fast-tract Fawad Ahmed's citizenship after 15 first-class matches is revealing. Possessing a doosra he calls "Jeff", it would be no surprise if Lyon was jettisoned at some point
The other tourists:
Ashton Agar - 19-year-old left-arm spinner who has hit three 50s from his nine first-class matches. Did well with Australia A and is a definite contender for Lyon's place
Jackson Bird - A control bowler with an excellent first-class record and 11 wickets from his two Tests against Sri Lanka at 16.18 runs apiece, he is another exciting seamer who could come in and took wickets against Worcestershire
James Faulkner - A highly-rated all rounder (especially by Shane Warne) who bowls left arm over and is more than handy with the bat as showed in the Champions Trophy. Will probably be a mainstay in the Australian team in all three formats in the future
Ryan Harris - Another top seamer who can hold a bat, 33-year-old Harris averages 23.63 from 12 Tests and has troubled England in the past but is injury prone
Usman Khawaja - A Test average of 29.22 from six Tests is not much, but he is highly rated and a 73 against Somerset will have done him no harm. Number six is the position which looks hardest to call with David Warner and Steve Smith around, so if given the chance Khawaja needs to start well
Matthew Wade - A wicket-keeper whose Test average of 34.61 is only slight worse than Haddin's, Wade might find himself displaced because Haddin is seen as the better option with bat and gloves
David Warner - Almost certain not to start after being banned from the warm-up matches for punching Root, Warner could find himself in the middle order where he is less exposed to the new ball. A free scoring batsman with a respectable Test average of 39.46, his lack of form is a concern but a clean slate under Lehmann could be in his favour.
Overall scores (based on possibly line-ups): England - 87, Australia - 81.5
Best combined team
1. Cook
2. Watson
3. Trott
4. Pietersen
5. Clarke
6. Root
7. Prior
8. Starc
9. Broad (close call with Pattinson)
10. Swann
11. Anderson
The grounds
Trent Bridge - Normally a swingers' paradise but has done less this summer and the last two First Class matches have seen stacks of runs. The pitch will be dry and could turn later on
Lord's - 2009 saw England finally win at the great ground against their main rivals. If it's sunny expect runs galore (pitches sometimes improve over the match) but any cloud cover will offer assistance to the seamers
Old Trafford - Most likely to be a quick, bouncy wicket with a dry outfield which should assist reverse swing. Spin is also expected to play a big part at the end. There's a reason England love playing here
Chester le-Street - Four wins from four here for England but hard to know what to expect. Four first-class matches this season have seen the pace bowlers do well
The Oval - If England are not ahead or have the Ashes sealed expect a dry wicket which will turn from day one. Otherwise, a flat pitch could be expected
Overall prediction
Conditions and the toss at Trent Bridge will have a massive effect. If it's bowler-friendly and Australia win the toss the whole series can change. Otherwise, it's hard to see past an England win. I'm going 2-1 but I expect it to be tight throughout the series
Top run scorer:
England - Trott, Australia - Clarke
Top wicket taker:
England - Anderson, Australia - Starc
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