The most over-blown, badly organised, major sporting event.
I admit this is hardly going to entice you to keep reading, but I hope seeing me badly predict what will happen at the Cricket World Cup is worth doing.
With a rough guide to the big teams, predictions for the tournament, Lamy's guaranteed-to-fail bets and my Dream XI, hopefully this blog will be as sharp and dynamic as a Glenn Maxwell cameo.
Group A
England
Australia
New Zealand
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Scotland
England
Judging by the form guide, England are in the group of death. That's not saying much as there are only two groups, but it wouldn't be a World Cup without the obligatory group of death for us all to pore over in giddy excitement.
Dropping Alastair Cook will help their chances, but too much attention was paid on Cook's poor form. England's problems are much deeper.
The recent tri-series showed a welcome return of top order runs, but in the last decade England have only scored 300 on 21 occasions. Other than against Bangladesh, their highest score is 340.
India, in contrast, have scored 300 on 53 occasions.
At least if Ian Bell continues his good form, England fans will be in such a massive state of elation and satisfaction that they won't even notice the routine hammering being handed out.
The bowling is slightly less of a concern, with James Anderson one of the best with the new ball. But with nothing other than right-arm fast-medium and right-arm off spin, containing sides on good pitches will be really difficult.
Assuming England will make it to the quarter-finals is not a clever idea. Bangladesh and Afghanistan will both think they can win and Scotland seem to have the Midas touch under Paul Collingwoodl
However, should they get through as expected, as long as they avoid South Africa in the quarter-finals, England should not be worried by who they face.
Australia
A huge, hard-hitting batting line-up who are all in form. Two fast, slingy, wicket-taking left-arm bowlers. Confidence in abundance. Non-stop-winning this season and home conditions.
In terms of a build-up, Australia couldn't be in a much better place.
There are some injury concerns though. Captain Michael Clarke is desperately trying to get himself fit which is taking up a lot of attention. Key all-rounder James Faulkner is also an injury doubt. His absence would be a bigger blow than losing Clarke.
The only other concern is the lack of a world-class spinner, but that is a position most sides are in. Distractions over Clarke's fitness appear to be the only way for the Aussies to lose their momentum, unless David Warner decides to try and punch Joe Root in the opening fixture.
New Zealand
Another team with a long batting line-up and players in form. Like Australia, New Zealand go into the tournament full of confidence and with home advantage.
Kane Williamson's last 16 ODI scores read: 71, 77, 65, 60, 88, 10, 70*, 46, 123, 97, 15, 103, 26, 97, 54, 112.
So just the 12 scores over 50.
Brendon McCullum is breaking records, Ross Taylor is in great touch, Corey Anderson has the second-fastest international ton of all time and wicket-keeper Luke Ronchi recently whacked 170* off 99 balls.
The bowling attack has a lot of depth to it as well with left-arm and right-arm options in the pace and spin department.
A lack of quality reserve batsmen could be a worry, but for the first time in a while New Zealand go into this tournament as strong contenders rather than dark horses.
Sri Lanka
Speaking of dark horses, Sri Lanka are very much under the radar. A lot depends on the fitness of Lasith Malinga.
If he can find his form in the group stages, Sri Lanka will be a tough side to beat. The experienced Tillakaratne Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene all come into the tournament in-form and knowing this is their last World Cup.
The bowling has suffered recently in New Zealand and against India. But Sachithra Senanayake and Rangana Herath are decent spin options, and it was only last year that Malinga and Nuwan Kulasekara bowled brilliantly to take Sri Lanka to victory in the World T20 final.
At least nine of that side could start this tournament.
The lack of a settled opener alongside Dilshan is a concern, but Sri Lanka have excellent World Cup records. In their last six tournaments in the 50 over and 20 over World Cups, they have only failed to reach the final once. That includes being runners-up in the 2007 and 2011 50 over events.
The rest
Playing outside the sub-continent will make life hard for Bangladesh and Afghanistan.
Bangladesh know that one win against a major nation could see them through and they come into the tournament with some confidence having whitewashed Zimbabwe, although that was a few months ago now.
Left-arm spinner Taijul Islam has made a cracking start to his career, Mominul Haque has four Test hundreds from 12 matches and there is experience and the potential for explosive displays from Tamim Iqbal, Shakib Al Hasan and Mashrafe Mortaza.
Afghanistan are extremely hit-and-miss and will not go down wondering. Their recent form against fellow Associate nations is respectable, and if Hamid Hassan stays fit they have a fast bowler who can cause damage.
Scotland are the weakest side in the group, but having Paul Collingwood on-board has galvanised them. This includes a staggering 179 win over Ireland in a warm-up match followed by a three run loss to the West Indies after a late collapse.
Group B
South Africa
India
West Indies
Pakistan
Ireland
Zimbabwe
UAE
South Africa
Hashim Amla, Ab De Villiers and Dale Steyn and would get into any side at the moment, with Imran Tahir not far behind.
The batting is strong and the bowling attack is arguably the best around.
But with South Africa there is so much more to it than just their side, having never won a knockout match in this event.
That should change this time, but they will almost certainly have a tough quarter-final contest.
The issue for them is they are missing a James Faulkner figure. Their batting and bowling is a player light. Farhaan Behardien as the seventh batsman and fifth/sixth bowler looks the weak link in the side. If he plays well, though, South Africa will feel really confident of contesting the final.
India
Reigning World Cup and Champions Trophy champions. It seems ludicrous that you can get longer odds on India to win than England.
But India have fallen into the trap of touring Australia before a World Cup, and having not won a single match on tour and with a lot more hotel rooms to check-in to, it is hard to see how they can rouse themselves.
There is hope, of course. The batsmen have enviable records on paper - Virat Kohli is probably the best ODI batsman in the world, Rohit Sharma has two double hundreds in the format and MS Dhoni can provide inspirational leadership and destructive late-order hitting.
No total is safe if India get going.
The problem is, they don't appear like they are going to. Their bowlers take a pasting in all formats, and over three knock-out matches you would fancy one side will hit a massive total.
India won their last global tournament in England. But this, surely, is too much to ask.
West Indies
Disarray and West Indies go together like Homer Simpson and donuts. To go into detail here would take me far too long, but having left half-way through a tour of India and not picked two of their best players for this tournament, seemingly for revenge, it is not surprising some fancy Ireland to knock them out.
Their captain is 23-year-old Jason Holder, and he will be praying Chris Gayle shows his recent T20 form rather than continue his run of one 50 in his last 17 ODI innings.
With Sunil Narine also not available, there are very few reasons to have any confidence in the West Indies challenging.
It will require Gayle, Marlon Samuels, Darren Sammy and Andre Russell to find their range. If you are a West Indies fan, you will hope they find it against Ireland. Otherwise, they might yet reach a new low.
Pakistan
Missing three of their best bowlers in Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Hafeez and Junaid Khan, it seems impossible for Pakistan to repeat their 1992 triumph Down Under.
Unusually, their batting looks the stronger suit with elder statesmen Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shahid Afridi clear threats.
An opening fixture against India will be a great start to the tournament, but it's hard to see them proving much of a threat unless Afridi fires with bat and ball.
The rest
In the last six months Zimbabwe have been whitewashed in an ODI series by Bangladesh and beaten Australia.
Their two warm-up matches saw them have New Zealand 157-7 before rain intervened, and after that they chased down 280 against Sri Lanka with seven wickets and 28 balls remaining.
If they can maintain that form then they will be eyeing three wins out of six which might take them through.
Ireland have starred in the past two World Cups and will be eyeing wins against West Indies and Zimbabwe.
That opening fixture against Chris Gayle and co is huge for Ireland who must feel that a quarter-final place is a huge possibility. Recent form is not as consistent as it needs to be, but there is plenty of experience to expect that a couple of wins, if not more, is achievable.
The complete unknowns are the UAE, but having beaten Afghanistan 3-1 in a recent series, they will fancy at least one win in a group where only South Africa and India stand out.
Predictions
Winner: New Zealand
Dark horse: Sri Lanka
Top run-scorer: David Warner
Top wicket-taker: Mitchell Starc
Quarter-finals:
Australia v. West Indies - Australia win
New Zealand v. Pakistan - New Zealand win
Sri Lanka v. India - Sri Lanka win
England v. South Africa - South Africa win
Final:
Unless they meet in the semis, Australia v. New Zealand
Dream XI:
Amla, Sharma, Kohli, Sangakkara, De Villiers, Warner, Afridi, Faulkner, Johnson, Starc, Steyn
No comments:
Post a Comment