It's always tempting when someone defends the profession that they are in to call it self-preservation.
So my attempts to defend the BBC should come with two footnotes: I am disagreeing with the chief executive of the company which employs me (I hope he's not reading this) and the BBC has rejected all of the applications I have ever made to it. Even when I was asking for work experience.
Not only that, but the closest thing to a rival my newspaper has comes from the BBC. I try and catch the 8am news headlines on BBC Cambridgeshire every weekday morning to hear if they have something that we don't.
So why am I very defensive about the BBC? It's because I use it's website almost every day, whether to read the news, sport or check the weather forecast.
I have listened to Forest on the radio for more than a dozen years. I listen to TMS, I occasionally listen to Radio 1 and I even found myself enjoying a good debate on the future of supermarkets on Radio 4 yesterday as I drove home, proving once and for all how sad and easily pleased I am.
The BBC has lost almost of its sporting portfolio, but there's still Match of the Day, the FA Cup, Six Nations, big snooker events and Wimbledon. If there's a choice between Sky or BBC for the final two days of the Masters, I'm going with the BBC.
Having been put off history by my uni degree, I've found my enthusiasm start to return. This is largely due to the BBC and some excellent documentaries it has put on recently.
Think back to The Apprentice before the candidates became boring. Only Fools And Horses, Hustle, Little Britain, to name a few shows I used to love.
It still has Have I Got News For You, Pointless and Andrew Neil grilling weak politicians in between discussing the late-night shows he likes to watch.
What annoys me is the talk that the BBC is too big and needs to be brought down to size. We even have suggestions that it should not produce commercially popular shows like Strictly.
Yeah, because why would a TV company want to make shows which people actually enjoy watching...
The BBC has also been criticised for taking people away from local and national newspaper websites. For which I say, don't blame the BBC if you're not good enough. When you see some of the sensationalism which newspapers use, you can't be surprised when people turn away to an organisation which they trust.
However, this does not mean that the BBC does not need to change. It needs to consider whether it is paying salaries which are too big.
Before being removed from Top Gear it was fair to pay Jeremy Clarkson well because he was bringing millions of pounds in. But Gary Lineker? I'm a fan and recognise he is good at what he does, but I doubt people watch sport because of the person hosting it.
Not only that, but the BBC will not tell us who is getting paid big salaries and how much they are worth which is bad judgement. Licence fee payers deserve some honesty.
And how can it justify sending 25 times more journalists to a Lib Dem conference than the number of MPs the party has?
It also spent £200 million moving to Salford, and let's not even go into the pay-offs some of its executives received.
How anyone in the public sector, outside the medical profession at least, can receive over £1 million when leaving his/her job is absurd.
These are just a few examples of which appear to be many of the BBC not spending the public's purse wisely and this is what grates when staff lose their jobs or another sporting event is taken over by Sky who can't reach anywhere near the same audience.
So when I hear the BBC plead poverty I don't take it very seriously. But when I hear politicians telling the BBC that it's too big I remember that I find it hard to go more than a week without watching, listening to and reading BBC content.
Speaking of waste
Complaints about MP pay increases miss the point. Their actual salary for the importance of the work they do and hours they put in is fair.
MPs will spend their weekends attending events in their constituencies when many of us would rather be watching the Test match, re-arranging our many leather-bound books or getting spanked at pool (better luck next time Travell haha).
What is wrong is the expenses system which just throws money at them.
We have MPs claiming rent allowances for their property while renting out another property they own, and we have MPs claiming for a poppy wreath.
Over 100 MPs are said to be employing their partner or family member as well.
But none of this annoys me anything like what the Speaker John Bercow has claimed.
To spend £172 on a 0.7-mile chauffeur-driven journey is possibly the most absurd thing I've ever heard.
He gets paid nearly £142,000 a year and lives rent-free but is claiming travel and accommodation costs of £31,400 and charging more than £1,000 for alcohol as well.
It's a complete cliché, but you have to consider how many doctors, nurses, teachers, front-line emergency staff (delete as appropriate) you could fund if not for this waste of money and the millions of pounds of waste you get everywhere. Or maybe they could get a bigger pay rise than one per cent.
I had a third of a tin of tuna fall into the sink yesterday and I was pissed. But then I have to pay for it.
Signs you're no longer a child
School of Rock was one of my favourite childhood films. So I was looking forward to watching it again recently when I saw it was on TV.
But instead of enjoying it I just spent nearly the entire film wondering how on earth a class can play really loud music for weeks at a time and almost nobody seems to hear them. It just seemed completely ridiculous.
The only saving grace was that I watched Beauty and the Beast as well and thought it was brilliant, so there's some hope yet that I'm not a completely miserable cockwomble yet.
Sunday 26 July 2015
Sunday 17 May 2015
Well, that escalated quickly
Climbing the greasy pol-itics
I must admit it's been nice to see Facebook filled with political chat rather than selfies, food pics and people announcing they are getting engaged.
The latter especially as I see people accomplishing something with their lives while I sit alone in my flat drooling over Jimmy Anderson's seam position and Ian Bell's cover drive and loudly shouting 'Kuuuuuuuuch' every time Matt Kuchar comes on in the golf even though there is absolutely nobody around to hear me.
But anyway, I digress. It's been good to see that people care about what is going on and it's been revealing to see what views my 'friends' actually have. The election has prompted people liking statuses from David Cameron and others pushing a very socialist agenda.
A few points have been raised for me during the past month:
Even before the polls became discredited by the election result I was getting fed up with every newspaper group running a different poll on their front-page every day. From now on, no company should be able to publish more than one a week.
The campaign itself was just full on negative. When we weren't comparing the different kitchens of each leader, all we heard was do not vote Labour because you get the SNP, do not vote UKIP because you get Labour, do not vote Conservative because the NHS will collapse quicker than Derby from the Premier League.
The leaders went on the campaign trail but everything was staged so much that nothing of note ever seemed to happen.
And when questioned which parties they would work with in the result of a hung parliament we didn't seem to get a straight answer - a reason why changing the electoral system might not be a good idea.
And let's not get into the leaders' debates and the notorious spin room where party activists were defiantly trying to claim their man or woman had won.
From now on we should just make the election campaign a maximum of two weeks and get on with voting day which is brilliant. The shock in the room I was stood in when we saw the exit poll last week is something I'll always remember.
Going to bed at 3.30 on Friday afternoon, I had seen probably the rowdiest victory speech across the UK (http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/re-elected-mp-stewart-jackson-in-controversial-victory-speech-1-6733039) and the controversial leader of the city council unexpectedly defeated. It was exciting, dramatic stuff, although my 'career' has probably already peaked.
Election night is truly the political version of transfer deadline day except on a much grander scale. And if it inspires younger people to become politically active then that's a good thing. And if it means I have to see a lot less selfies then I am very pleased.
Me and football need to talk
It's probably fitting that I'm writing this story on the day Manchester United play Arsenal. A fixture which used to grip me so much that I would ignore Megan Fox gyrating in a bikini right in front of me if it meant potentially missing Keane and Vieira front up or Henry smash one in, it's now become just another game.
And that's not because neither are challenging for the title. My love affair with football I assumed would last forever, even when I am old, alone, still renting, still unable to grow a proper beard, and shouting 'Kuuuuch' at the golf on my TV even though he retired about 40 years ago.
But I can already feel the passion slowly flickering away. The game is a cesspit of greed, cheating, abuse and ridiculous hype.
Stoke v. Sunderland is not a Super Sunday. Referees are not continually biased against your club.
Even a Real Madrid-Barcelona clasico, for so long the closest thing to footballing perfection, has descended into the most pathetic, childish charade ever produced on a professional sporting field.
Refereeing that match is like being sandwiched in the middle of Anthony Joshua and The Rock. The diving, dirty fouling, appealing to get players booked and play-acting has gone to such lengths that you kind of just want to see the referee sarcastically clap and pretend to wipe a tear away before sending half of them off.
You marvel at Lionel Messi, but alongside him is Luis Suarez, a man who tucks into an opposition player like I used to get stuck into a Pizza Hut buffet.
But it's not even at the top level this is going on. Lower league players are now trying to con refs, I hear stories at amateur level of refs being spat on and threatened.
Clubs are now taken over by rich owners who make them a laughing stock. Ticket prices are an absolute farce.
And yet, despite this, that pull towards football is still there. While I don't get as bothered now by Forest's results, I still remember the dread, excitement and stomach-churning before a big play-off match.
I remember the amazing matches which defied all sporting logic, I remember sat in awe watching Andy Reid weave his magic with his wand of a left foot. And even four months ago I was sat watching Forest win in the last minute at Derby. Seeing an under pressure Stuart Pearce celebrate, seeing Reid in the crowd lapping it up. It was a faint reminder that, when stripped bare, football can transcend its relevance and make you genuinely happy, even if for just a few hours.
Unfortunately these moments are too fleeting. And that's not just because I support a team which - like life, death, taxes and having a massive dump after a big drinking session - is guaranteed to let me down year after year.
Forest have been worse in my lifetime than they are now, but the joy was still there. Yet I find myself watching fewer and fewer matches in general, and even then it's mostly by having it on in the background.
The ruling body of football, Fifa, is horrendous. The Premier League winners come from an elite group of money bags which is almost impossible to breach. It's everything that sport should not be.
But despite this I cannot let myself go. I can't forget being a football anorak who used to sign Freddy Adu every season on Football Manager (or Championship Manager as it was then) even though he was 13 and I would have to play eight seasons for him to become properly good.
I took Southampton to the Champions League, Forest to the Europa League, Wrexham to the top of the non-league pyramid in the early hours of the morning after missing a taxi to a club, and achieved promotion with Hapoel Rishon Le Zion from the Israeli second division. A fine achievement I'm sure you will agree.
I used to google FM wonderkids. I would see Eddie Johnson score 30 goals a season for me then wonder why he was so much worse in real life. I would become the manager of every top European club, fine their star player two weeks' wages for no reason, then sell them to the club I was actually managing so I could create an all-star team. And even then I'd still somehow not win the league.
I would play Fifa religiously, getting in a rage when the dirty cheating ref (see, I'm just as bad as the others) rules out a perfectly goal for me before somehow allowing one in at the other end despite someone launching a kung-fu kick on my keeper while he was trying to catch the ball.
I used to play International Superstar Soccer on the N64, play football top trumps, read football magazines, and had a massive thrill when one offered me two weeks worth of work experience (which turned out to be absolutely rubbish).
Maybe I was naive, sad and needed to get out more. All things which are probably still true.
But the excitement is slowly disappearing. It's no longer 50 shades of grey, it's more like 50 shades of a dull ball ache.
And it makes me sad, and sometimes angry, that football is so hard to enjoy. I miss the atmosphere, the away trips, the chanting, the heroes, the local boy-done-good who you want on the back of your shirt.
It's still there occasionally. It will never completely fade away. Despite the engulfing disease which is slowly spreading and destroying everything good inside football, there are flickers of what drew me to it in the first place. And I'm sure I will never turn my back on it properly. Of course not. The hope will always remain that we will be fully reconciled.
Now if you excuse me, the golf is on. Although disappointingly Kuch is not playing.
I must admit it's been nice to see Facebook filled with political chat rather than selfies, food pics and people announcing they are getting engaged.
The latter especially as I see people accomplishing something with their lives while I sit alone in my flat drooling over Jimmy Anderson's seam position and Ian Bell's cover drive and loudly shouting 'Kuuuuuuuuch' every time Matt Kuchar comes on in the golf even though there is absolutely nobody around to hear me.
But anyway, I digress. It's been good to see that people care about what is going on and it's been revealing to see what views my 'friends' actually have. The election has prompted people liking statuses from David Cameron and others pushing a very socialist agenda.
A few points have been raised for me during the past month:
Even before the polls became discredited by the election result I was getting fed up with every newspaper group running a different poll on their front-page every day. From now on, no company should be able to publish more than one a week.
The campaign itself was just full on negative. When we weren't comparing the different kitchens of each leader, all we heard was do not vote Labour because you get the SNP, do not vote UKIP because you get Labour, do not vote Conservative because the NHS will collapse quicker than Derby from the Premier League.
The leaders went on the campaign trail but everything was staged so much that nothing of note ever seemed to happen.
And when questioned which parties they would work with in the result of a hung parliament we didn't seem to get a straight answer - a reason why changing the electoral system might not be a good idea.
And let's not get into the leaders' debates and the notorious spin room where party activists were defiantly trying to claim their man or woman had won.
From now on we should just make the election campaign a maximum of two weeks and get on with voting day which is brilliant. The shock in the room I was stood in when we saw the exit poll last week is something I'll always remember.
Going to bed at 3.30 on Friday afternoon, I had seen probably the rowdiest victory speech across the UK (http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/re-elected-mp-stewart-jackson-in-controversial-victory-speech-1-6733039) and the controversial leader of the city council unexpectedly defeated. It was exciting, dramatic stuff, although my 'career' has probably already peaked.
Election night is truly the political version of transfer deadline day except on a much grander scale. And if it inspires younger people to become politically active then that's a good thing. And if it means I have to see a lot less selfies then I am very pleased.
Me and football need to talk
It's probably fitting that I'm writing this story on the day Manchester United play Arsenal. A fixture which used to grip me so much that I would ignore Megan Fox gyrating in a bikini right in front of me if it meant potentially missing Keane and Vieira front up or Henry smash one in, it's now become just another game.
And that's not because neither are challenging for the title. My love affair with football I assumed would last forever, even when I am old, alone, still renting, still unable to grow a proper beard, and shouting 'Kuuuuch' at the golf on my TV even though he retired about 40 years ago.
But I can already feel the passion slowly flickering away. The game is a cesspit of greed, cheating, abuse and ridiculous hype.
Stoke v. Sunderland is not a Super Sunday. Referees are not continually biased against your club.
Even a Real Madrid-Barcelona clasico, for so long the closest thing to footballing perfection, has descended into the most pathetic, childish charade ever produced on a professional sporting field.
Refereeing that match is like being sandwiched in the middle of Anthony Joshua and The Rock. The diving, dirty fouling, appealing to get players booked and play-acting has gone to such lengths that you kind of just want to see the referee sarcastically clap and pretend to wipe a tear away before sending half of them off.
You marvel at Lionel Messi, but alongside him is Luis Suarez, a man who tucks into an opposition player like I used to get stuck into a Pizza Hut buffet.
But it's not even at the top level this is going on. Lower league players are now trying to con refs, I hear stories at amateur level of refs being spat on and threatened.
Clubs are now taken over by rich owners who make them a laughing stock. Ticket prices are an absolute farce.
And yet, despite this, that pull towards football is still there. While I don't get as bothered now by Forest's results, I still remember the dread, excitement and stomach-churning before a big play-off match.
I remember the amazing matches which defied all sporting logic, I remember sat in awe watching Andy Reid weave his magic with his wand of a left foot. And even four months ago I was sat watching Forest win in the last minute at Derby. Seeing an under pressure Stuart Pearce celebrate, seeing Reid in the crowd lapping it up. It was a faint reminder that, when stripped bare, football can transcend its relevance and make you genuinely happy, even if for just a few hours.
Unfortunately these moments are too fleeting. And that's not just because I support a team which - like life, death, taxes and having a massive dump after a big drinking session - is guaranteed to let me down year after year.
Forest have been worse in my lifetime than they are now, but the joy was still there. Yet I find myself watching fewer and fewer matches in general, and even then it's mostly by having it on in the background.
The ruling body of football, Fifa, is horrendous. The Premier League winners come from an elite group of money bags which is almost impossible to breach. It's everything that sport should not be.
But despite this I cannot let myself go. I can't forget being a football anorak who used to sign Freddy Adu every season on Football Manager (or Championship Manager as it was then) even though he was 13 and I would have to play eight seasons for him to become properly good.
I took Southampton to the Champions League, Forest to the Europa League, Wrexham to the top of the non-league pyramid in the early hours of the morning after missing a taxi to a club, and achieved promotion with Hapoel Rishon Le Zion from the Israeli second division. A fine achievement I'm sure you will agree.
I used to google FM wonderkids. I would see Eddie Johnson score 30 goals a season for me then wonder why he was so much worse in real life. I would become the manager of every top European club, fine their star player two weeks' wages for no reason, then sell them to the club I was actually managing so I could create an all-star team. And even then I'd still somehow not win the league.
I would play Fifa religiously, getting in a rage when the dirty cheating ref (see, I'm just as bad as the others) rules out a perfectly goal for me before somehow allowing one in at the other end despite someone launching a kung-fu kick on my keeper while he was trying to catch the ball.
I used to play International Superstar Soccer on the N64, play football top trumps, read football magazines, and had a massive thrill when one offered me two weeks worth of work experience (which turned out to be absolutely rubbish).
Maybe I was naive, sad and needed to get out more. All things which are probably still true.
But the excitement is slowly disappearing. It's no longer 50 shades of grey, it's more like 50 shades of a dull ball ache.
And it makes me sad, and sometimes angry, that football is so hard to enjoy. I miss the atmosphere, the away trips, the chanting, the heroes, the local boy-done-good who you want on the back of your shirt.
It's still there occasionally. It will never completely fade away. Despite the engulfing disease which is slowly spreading and destroying everything good inside football, there are flickers of what drew me to it in the first place. And I'm sure I will never turn my back on it properly. Of course not. The hope will always remain that we will be fully reconciled.
Now if you excuse me, the golf is on. Although disappointingly Kuch is not playing.
Sunday 22 February 2015
Pain and blame
I'm a believer in fate, so when I was told that being sent to a speed awareness course was the best thing that could have happened to me I believed it.
Now nobody wants to go to one of these courses.
It cost me £90 plus petrol for driving over 90 minutes to get there and back.
It's also fair to say finding out I had been clocked doing 80mph in a 70mph left me feeling like Ross in Friends - "I'm fine, no problem," when really all I wanted to do was smash up everything around me in a violent rage then use my work phone to ring someone I know, but who would not recognise the number, and shout abuse at them down the phone before hanging up and stamping all over the phone and chucking it against a wall.
Seriously, I was that pissed off. I thought I was getting three points on my licence which in turn would mean my insurance would go up in price, which would probably mean I'd sell my car, which would then make me have to get a train everytime I want to go to Nottingham. And trains are overpriced, cramped and always late except for the one time when you are not there bang on time and it actually decides to leave early.
But I left my course in January a different person. I wasn't quite going to become a missionary and give all my earnings to charity, but I did feel as if I had had the most intense educational experience of my life.
I learnt that the difference between 30 and 32 mph can mean stopping in front of someone and hitting them at a speed quick enough to cause serious damage.
I learnt that the survival rate of someone hit at 30mph is 80%. At 40mph that becomes 20%.
I saw the devastation of a family who had lost their daughter from a driver who was marginally speeding over the 30mph limit.
I saw a reconstruction of a horrendous motorway crash and how so many people ended up piled on because they did not leave anywhere near enough of a gap between the vehicle in front of them.
In 2013, 3,064 people were killed or seriously injured in crashes where speed was a factor.
You could see the horrified reactions of the people in the room as videos and stats hit them one after the other.
The devastation of a road accident was brought home to me recently by the trial of Debra Weston, a Nottingham woman who caused the death of Stephen and Samantha Durber and left their three-year-old son Lucas as an orphan.
She had not been drinking or on drugs and she was not even speeding. Quite simply, Weston seemed to veer into the wrong lane and, on trying to correct herself, lost control of her car.
She received 12 months for death by careless driving, but in reality she will live a life sentence of her own.
When you think that in the past year someone was clocked doing 128mph in a 30mph limit and that countless people get caught over the drink-drive limit, there are a lot of motorists out there who are lucky.
I know having written this that I'm bound to be involved in an accident soon, but if I can convince anyone to drive a little slower then I'll be pleased.
Not everyone will be lucky to be caught by a camera.
Sporting pain
Being a Forest fan and England fan generally feels like being repeatedly kicked in the nuts.
There's the sporting nadir of play-off defeats, Ashes whitewashes and underachievement in major tournaments.
Initially, like the initial contact on your scrotum, the pain of the defeat leaves you bent over as it's so raw and hard to take.
Once the initial shock disappears it's then the months of lingering disappointment and anger before slowly rousing yourself to go again. That's like the throbbing pain in your stomach which takes a long time to disappear before you finally feel like moving again.
Of course as a Forest and England fan there is the odd moment of fleeting glory. An encounter which, so unexpected, leaves you feeling joyful and leaves you with that sweet taste of success.
It's only a fleeting taste and all it does is leave a deep craving for more, which in turn only makes the next collapse, last day defeat or ritual spanking that even harder to take.
With that background it's worth taking a look at recent events at Forest.
I was in a minority who did not want Steve Cotterill sacked when he was here. I was then annoyed when Sean O'Driscoll was sacked with Forest in touching distance of the play-offs and having just beaten Leeds in thrilling fashion.
I wasn't disappointed to see Billy Davies or Stuart Pearce appointed even though I thought both were brought in by Fawaz to get the fans on side after some bad publicity. Which frankly was deserved when Alex McLeish was hired.
Now? I just feel embarrassed by the club. Under a transfer embargo, not paying clubs what we owe them then sacking a club legend and replacing him a couple of hours later.
It turns out Dougie Freeman was hired for the simple reason that he was available which makes perfect long-term planning.
It also later turns out that he is only a three month contract, although this might be extended.
People I used to meet always said how they liked Forest and wished we would be back in the top flight. That good faith is being tested.
It says a lot that our slide down the league table this season didn't annoy me that much. In fact, it was the terrible slump in form which made a heavy loss to Derby all the more likely. Which, as alluded to earlier, made the last minute, comeback winner that so much sweeter.
There was Pearce celebrating in the dug-out, the glorious Andy Reid was in the stands lapping it up, the camera spun to Fawaz who took a break from crafting his P45 for the manager to see what pleasure spending millions of pounds could actually bring.
What a moment, what a match. Again, as I said earlier that's the moment of unexpected bliss which is soon followed by a complete and utter pile of piss and things go back to normal and you're 3-0 down at Fulham after half-an-hour.
Fawaz, who has been playing air-guitar all around his 30 acre pad in celebration at the Derby result, suddenly remembers that he left Pearce's P45 at the iPro and a few days later he is sacked.
It's just an utter shambles. And just like Pearce before him, and Davies before him, and O'Driscoll before him, Freedman starts off with a few wins and everyone is happy again even though the season is already over and the next one is already in trouble with Britt Assombalonga out injured for a large part of it.
To be honest, if you hire enough managers to a good side one is eventually going to do well. So Freedman may well be doing the Dougie in celebration next May. Or maybe in November we will be outside the play-offs and he will be sacked, the chairman will refuse to talk the media because it accurately reports what he said, Reid will be injured again and thus somehow miss out on the Ballon d'Or which he is long overdue,
And we will not pay for the players we have bought, our new chief executive will walk out and we will start this cycle all over again with Pierre van Hooijdonk as the manager, Eugen Bopp as his assistant and Eugene Dadi the director of football.
Marlon Harewood will then be re-signed but fail a medical because he can't read a number plate from 30 yards away and Derby will be in Europe under Shteve McClaren.
To continue the theme...
The first week of the World Cup has pretty much gone to script. Australia and New Zealand have been convincing winners, England decided to change their side last minute and have been smashed.
Pakistan have made no runs, Ireland have beaten a Test side and South Africa have collapsed chasing a target.
Batsmen have scored big runs and there has been plenty of long hitting.
Whilst I'm here, it's worth giving a quick update on how the marathon tournament is unfolding.
England
I didn't expect much so I'm not disappointed. I wrote last week the batsmen find it tough to score 300 and there is no variety to the bowling and it showed.
Being hammered by two really good sides doesn't annoy me. What I hate are the last-minute changes to the side. Why have we put inGary Ballance at three, pushed James Taylor down to six and, to a lesser extent, not given Chris Woakes the new ball?
Peter Moores chose his Test side this summer and largely stuck with it despite losing. He was rewarded with three wins at the end.
But with the ODI team it's hard to have much confidence in him.
In his first series against Sri Lanka, the top three was Alastair Cook, Ian Bell and Ballance.
Against India, Cook, Alex Hales and Bell started in the top three. Ballance and Moeen Ali also featured at three.
Away at Sri Lanka. First match is Cook, Ali and Bell. That later becomes Cook, Ali and Hales, then Hales, Ali and Taylor when Cook was suspended. Then Cook, Ali and Taylor, before ending with Cook, Ali and Hales.
Then it's the beginning of the tri-series in Australia against the hosts and it's Bell, Ali and Taylor.
There is finally some continuity as those three play five matches in a row.
So on the opening day of the World Cup... Ballance comes in at three.
What chance are we giving ourselves? Why are players who have been dropped suddenly getting straight back in?
England wasted their summer by playing with Cook at the top for so long.
The summer in domestic cricket showed that Hales, Taylor and Ben Stokes were match winners.
Jason Roy at the top of the order deserved a go in Sri Lanka.
If England wanted a tall quick to take with them, I would have also gone with Boyd-Rankin over Steven Finn who still lacks pace.
It's a fine line in cricket between changing too many players or none at all as it's hard to suddenly bring someone in and expect them to be in form.
Still, England are favourites to win their remaining four group matches. They need to win at least three and to do so with a team who can then take on and beat three other big sides in knock-out matches.
For me, that team would have included Stokes and Adil Rashid. Possibly Roy if he had had the chance to stake a place.
But with the players available, I'm going: Hales, Bell, Taylor, Root, Morgan, Buttler, Ali, Jordan, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
The team I would have liked at the start of the Sri Lanka tour was: Hales, Roy, Root, Stokes, Morgan, Buttler, Ali, Rashid, Jordan, Woakes, Boyd Rankin.
Broad and Anderson would then have come in once fit, probably for Jordan and Boyd Rankin. Taylor would have been next in line with the batting, although he has done really well since selected.
Anyway, let's really hope England get out the groups and maybe catch India on a day when the ball swings.
Elsewhere
Australia have only played one match and that was against England, so we won't know how good they are until they play a decent side.
South Africa contrived to collapse embarrassingly against India to give their side a taster of what to expect when they reach the knock-out matches.
New Zealand are in absolutely top form, which means they will probably win all six group matches then lose their first knockout match to really mess me about.
India, who ridiculously were longer odds than England at one point, have scored heavily. This is vital with their poor bowling attack. Virat Kohli has shown why I think he is the best ODI batsman in the world.
Sri Lanka rely heavily on Lasith Malinga who looks like he has indulged himself a bit too much whilst injured and is bowling like a medium-pacer. They were my dark horse tip, but their bowlers look out of form.
Pakistan are doing even worse than England, somehow. West Indies are scoring runs, but surely will embarrass themselves soon.
Pool B is beautifully open with Ireland and Zimbabwe both feeling they can qualify.
Now nobody wants to go to one of these courses.
It cost me £90 plus petrol for driving over 90 minutes to get there and back.
It's also fair to say finding out I had been clocked doing 80mph in a 70mph left me feeling like Ross in Friends - "I'm fine, no problem," when really all I wanted to do was smash up everything around me in a violent rage then use my work phone to ring someone I know, but who would not recognise the number, and shout abuse at them down the phone before hanging up and stamping all over the phone and chucking it against a wall.
Seriously, I was that pissed off. I thought I was getting three points on my licence which in turn would mean my insurance would go up in price, which would probably mean I'd sell my car, which would then make me have to get a train everytime I want to go to Nottingham. And trains are overpriced, cramped and always late except for the one time when you are not there bang on time and it actually decides to leave early.
But I left my course in January a different person. I wasn't quite going to become a missionary and give all my earnings to charity, but I did feel as if I had had the most intense educational experience of my life.
I learnt that the difference between 30 and 32 mph can mean stopping in front of someone and hitting them at a speed quick enough to cause serious damage.
I learnt that the survival rate of someone hit at 30mph is 80%. At 40mph that becomes 20%.
I saw the devastation of a family who had lost their daughter from a driver who was marginally speeding over the 30mph limit.
I saw a reconstruction of a horrendous motorway crash and how so many people ended up piled on because they did not leave anywhere near enough of a gap between the vehicle in front of them.
In 2013, 3,064 people were killed or seriously injured in crashes where speed was a factor.
You could see the horrified reactions of the people in the room as videos and stats hit them one after the other.
The devastation of a road accident was brought home to me recently by the trial of Debra Weston, a Nottingham woman who caused the death of Stephen and Samantha Durber and left their three-year-old son Lucas as an orphan.
She had not been drinking or on drugs and she was not even speeding. Quite simply, Weston seemed to veer into the wrong lane and, on trying to correct herself, lost control of her car.
She received 12 months for death by careless driving, but in reality she will live a life sentence of her own.
When you think that in the past year someone was clocked doing 128mph in a 30mph limit and that countless people get caught over the drink-drive limit, there are a lot of motorists out there who are lucky.
I know having written this that I'm bound to be involved in an accident soon, but if I can convince anyone to drive a little slower then I'll be pleased.
Not everyone will be lucky to be caught by a camera.
Sporting pain
Being a Forest fan and England fan generally feels like being repeatedly kicked in the nuts.
There's the sporting nadir of play-off defeats, Ashes whitewashes and underachievement in major tournaments.
Initially, like the initial contact on your scrotum, the pain of the defeat leaves you bent over as it's so raw and hard to take.
Once the initial shock disappears it's then the months of lingering disappointment and anger before slowly rousing yourself to go again. That's like the throbbing pain in your stomach which takes a long time to disappear before you finally feel like moving again.
Of course as a Forest and England fan there is the odd moment of fleeting glory. An encounter which, so unexpected, leaves you feeling joyful and leaves you with that sweet taste of success.
It's only a fleeting taste and all it does is leave a deep craving for more, which in turn only makes the next collapse, last day defeat or ritual spanking that even harder to take.
With that background it's worth taking a look at recent events at Forest.
I was in a minority who did not want Steve Cotterill sacked when he was here. I was then annoyed when Sean O'Driscoll was sacked with Forest in touching distance of the play-offs and having just beaten Leeds in thrilling fashion.
I wasn't disappointed to see Billy Davies or Stuart Pearce appointed even though I thought both were brought in by Fawaz to get the fans on side after some bad publicity. Which frankly was deserved when Alex McLeish was hired.
Now? I just feel embarrassed by the club. Under a transfer embargo, not paying clubs what we owe them then sacking a club legend and replacing him a couple of hours later.
It turns out Dougie Freeman was hired for the simple reason that he was available which makes perfect long-term planning.
It also later turns out that he is only a three month contract, although this might be extended.
People I used to meet always said how they liked Forest and wished we would be back in the top flight. That good faith is being tested.
It says a lot that our slide down the league table this season didn't annoy me that much. In fact, it was the terrible slump in form which made a heavy loss to Derby all the more likely. Which, as alluded to earlier, made the last minute, comeback winner that so much sweeter.
There was Pearce celebrating in the dug-out, the glorious Andy Reid was in the stands lapping it up, the camera spun to Fawaz who took a break from crafting his P45 for the manager to see what pleasure spending millions of pounds could actually bring.
What a moment, what a match. Again, as I said earlier that's the moment of unexpected bliss which is soon followed by a complete and utter pile of piss and things go back to normal and you're 3-0 down at Fulham after half-an-hour.
Fawaz, who has been playing air-guitar all around his 30 acre pad in celebration at the Derby result, suddenly remembers that he left Pearce's P45 at the iPro and a few days later he is sacked.
It's just an utter shambles. And just like Pearce before him, and Davies before him, and O'Driscoll before him, Freedman starts off with a few wins and everyone is happy again even though the season is already over and the next one is already in trouble with Britt Assombalonga out injured for a large part of it.
To be honest, if you hire enough managers to a good side one is eventually going to do well. So Freedman may well be doing the Dougie in celebration next May. Or maybe in November we will be outside the play-offs and he will be sacked, the chairman will refuse to talk the media because it accurately reports what he said, Reid will be injured again and thus somehow miss out on the Ballon d'Or which he is long overdue,
And we will not pay for the players we have bought, our new chief executive will walk out and we will start this cycle all over again with Pierre van Hooijdonk as the manager, Eugen Bopp as his assistant and Eugene Dadi the director of football.
Marlon Harewood will then be re-signed but fail a medical because he can't read a number plate from 30 yards away and Derby will be in Europe under Shteve McClaren.
To continue the theme...
The first week of the World Cup has pretty much gone to script. Australia and New Zealand have been convincing winners, England decided to change their side last minute and have been smashed.
Pakistan have made no runs, Ireland have beaten a Test side and South Africa have collapsed chasing a target.
Batsmen have scored big runs and there has been plenty of long hitting.
Whilst I'm here, it's worth giving a quick update on how the marathon tournament is unfolding.
England
I didn't expect much so I'm not disappointed. I wrote last week the batsmen find it tough to score 300 and there is no variety to the bowling and it showed.
Being hammered by two really good sides doesn't annoy me. What I hate are the last-minute changes to the side. Why have we put inGary Ballance at three, pushed James Taylor down to six and, to a lesser extent, not given Chris Woakes the new ball?
Peter Moores chose his Test side this summer and largely stuck with it despite losing. He was rewarded with three wins at the end.
But with the ODI team it's hard to have much confidence in him.
In his first series against Sri Lanka, the top three was Alastair Cook, Ian Bell and Ballance.
Against India, Cook, Alex Hales and Bell started in the top three. Ballance and Moeen Ali also featured at three.
Away at Sri Lanka. First match is Cook, Ali and Bell. That later becomes Cook, Ali and Hales, then Hales, Ali and Taylor when Cook was suspended. Then Cook, Ali and Taylor, before ending with Cook, Ali and Hales.
Then it's the beginning of the tri-series in Australia against the hosts and it's Bell, Ali and Taylor.
There is finally some continuity as those three play five matches in a row.
So on the opening day of the World Cup... Ballance comes in at three.
What chance are we giving ourselves? Why are players who have been dropped suddenly getting straight back in?
England wasted their summer by playing with Cook at the top for so long.
The summer in domestic cricket showed that Hales, Taylor and Ben Stokes were match winners.
Jason Roy at the top of the order deserved a go in Sri Lanka.
If England wanted a tall quick to take with them, I would have also gone with Boyd-Rankin over Steven Finn who still lacks pace.
It's a fine line in cricket between changing too many players or none at all as it's hard to suddenly bring someone in and expect them to be in form.
Still, England are favourites to win their remaining four group matches. They need to win at least three and to do so with a team who can then take on and beat three other big sides in knock-out matches.
For me, that team would have included Stokes and Adil Rashid. Possibly Roy if he had had the chance to stake a place.
But with the players available, I'm going: Hales, Bell, Taylor, Root, Morgan, Buttler, Ali, Jordan, Woakes, Broad, Anderson.
The team I would have liked at the start of the Sri Lanka tour was: Hales, Roy, Root, Stokes, Morgan, Buttler, Ali, Rashid, Jordan, Woakes, Boyd Rankin.
Broad and Anderson would then have come in once fit, probably for Jordan and Boyd Rankin. Taylor would have been next in line with the batting, although he has done really well since selected.
Anyway, let's really hope England get out the groups and maybe catch India on a day when the ball swings.
Elsewhere
Australia have only played one match and that was against England, so we won't know how good they are until they play a decent side.
South Africa contrived to collapse embarrassingly against India to give their side a taster of what to expect when they reach the knock-out matches.
New Zealand are in absolutely top form, which means they will probably win all six group matches then lose their first knockout match to really mess me about.
India, who ridiculously were longer odds than England at one point, have scored heavily. This is vital with their poor bowling attack. Virat Kohli has shown why I think he is the best ODI batsman in the world.
Sri Lanka rely heavily on Lasith Malinga who looks like he has indulged himself a bit too much whilst injured and is bowling like a medium-pacer. They were my dark horse tip, but their bowlers look out of form.
Pakistan are doing even worse than England, somehow. West Indies are scoring runs, but surely will embarrass themselves soon.
Pool B is beautifully open with Ireland and Zimbabwe both feeling they can qualify.
Friday 13 February 2015
Book in for bed and breakfast... for six weeks
The most over-blown, badly organised, major sporting event.
I admit this is hardly going to entice you to keep reading, but I hope seeing me badly predict what will happen at the Cricket World Cup is worth doing.
With a rough guide to the big teams, predictions for the tournament, Lamy's guaranteed-to-fail bets and my Dream XI, hopefully this blog will be as sharp and dynamic as a Glenn Maxwell cameo.
Group A
England
Australia
New Zealand
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Scotland
England
Judging by the form guide, England are in the group of death. That's not saying much as there are only two groups, but it wouldn't be a World Cup without the obligatory group of death for us all to pore over in giddy excitement.
Dropping Alastair Cook will help their chances, but too much attention was paid on Cook's poor form. England's problems are much deeper.
The recent tri-series showed a welcome return of top order runs, but in the last decade England have only scored 300 on 21 occasions. Other than against Bangladesh, their highest score is 340.
India, in contrast, have scored 300 on 53 occasions.
At least if Ian Bell continues his good form, England fans will be in such a massive state of elation and satisfaction that they won't even notice the routine hammering being handed out.
The bowling is slightly less of a concern, with James Anderson one of the best with the new ball. But with nothing other than right-arm fast-medium and right-arm off spin, containing sides on good pitches will be really difficult.
Assuming England will make it to the quarter-finals is not a clever idea. Bangladesh and Afghanistan will both think they can win and Scotland seem to have the Midas touch under Paul Collingwoodl
However, should they get through as expected, as long as they avoid South Africa in the quarter-finals, England should not be worried by who they face.
Australia
A huge, hard-hitting batting line-up who are all in form. Two fast, slingy, wicket-taking left-arm bowlers. Confidence in abundance. Non-stop-winning this season and home conditions.
In terms of a build-up, Australia couldn't be in a much better place.
There are some injury concerns though. Captain Michael Clarke is desperately trying to get himself fit which is taking up a lot of attention. Key all-rounder James Faulkner is also an injury doubt. His absence would be a bigger blow than losing Clarke.
The only other concern is the lack of a world-class spinner, but that is a position most sides are in. Distractions over Clarke's fitness appear to be the only way for the Aussies to lose their momentum, unless David Warner decides to try and punch Joe Root in the opening fixture.
New Zealand
Another team with a long batting line-up and players in form. Like Australia, New Zealand go into the tournament full of confidence and with home advantage.
Kane Williamson's last 16 ODI scores read: 71, 77, 65, 60, 88, 10, 70*, 46, 123, 97, 15, 103, 26, 97, 54, 112.
So just the 12 scores over 50.
Brendon McCullum is breaking records, Ross Taylor is in great touch, Corey Anderson has the second-fastest international ton of all time and wicket-keeper Luke Ronchi recently whacked 170* off 99 balls.
The bowling attack has a lot of depth to it as well with left-arm and right-arm options in the pace and spin department.
A lack of quality reserve batsmen could be a worry, but for the first time in a while New Zealand go into this tournament as strong contenders rather than dark horses.
Sri Lanka
Speaking of dark horses, Sri Lanka are very much under the radar. A lot depends on the fitness of Lasith Malinga.
If he can find his form in the group stages, Sri Lanka will be a tough side to beat. The experienced Tillakaratne Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene all come into the tournament in-form and knowing this is their last World Cup.
The bowling has suffered recently in New Zealand and against India. But Sachithra Senanayake and Rangana Herath are decent spin options, and it was only last year that Malinga and Nuwan Kulasekara bowled brilliantly to take Sri Lanka to victory in the World T20 final.
At least nine of that side could start this tournament.
The lack of a settled opener alongside Dilshan is a concern, but Sri Lanka have excellent World Cup records. In their last six tournaments in the 50 over and 20 over World Cups, they have only failed to reach the final once. That includes being runners-up in the 2007 and 2011 50 over events.
The rest
Playing outside the sub-continent will make life hard for Bangladesh and Afghanistan.
Bangladesh know that one win against a major nation could see them through and they come into the tournament with some confidence having whitewashed Zimbabwe, although that was a few months ago now.
Left-arm spinner Taijul Islam has made a cracking start to his career, Mominul Haque has four Test hundreds from 12 matches and there is experience and the potential for explosive displays from Tamim Iqbal, Shakib Al Hasan and Mashrafe Mortaza.
Afghanistan are extremely hit-and-miss and will not go down wondering. Their recent form against fellow Associate nations is respectable, and if Hamid Hassan stays fit they have a fast bowler who can cause damage.
Scotland are the weakest side in the group, but having Paul Collingwood on-board has galvanised them. This includes a staggering 179 win over Ireland in a warm-up match followed by a three run loss to the West Indies after a late collapse.
Group B
South Africa
India
West Indies
Pakistan
Ireland
Zimbabwe
UAE
South Africa
Hashim Amla, Ab De Villiers and Dale Steyn and would get into any side at the moment, with Imran Tahir not far behind.
The batting is strong and the bowling attack is arguably the best around.
But with South Africa there is so much more to it than just their side, having never won a knockout match in this event.
That should change this time, but they will almost certainly have a tough quarter-final contest.
The issue for them is they are missing a James Faulkner figure. Their batting and bowling is a player light. Farhaan Behardien as the seventh batsman and fifth/sixth bowler looks the weak link in the side. If he plays well, though, South Africa will feel really confident of contesting the final.
India
Reigning World Cup and Champions Trophy champions. It seems ludicrous that you can get longer odds on India to win than England.
But India have fallen into the trap of touring Australia before a World Cup, and having not won a single match on tour and with a lot more hotel rooms to check-in to, it is hard to see how they can rouse themselves.
There is hope, of course. The batsmen have enviable records on paper - Virat Kohli is probably the best ODI batsman in the world, Rohit Sharma has two double hundreds in the format and MS Dhoni can provide inspirational leadership and destructive late-order hitting.
No total is safe if India get going.
The problem is, they don't appear like they are going to. Their bowlers take a pasting in all formats, and over three knock-out matches you would fancy one side will hit a massive total.
India won their last global tournament in England. But this, surely, is too much to ask.
West Indies
Disarray and West Indies go together like Homer Simpson and donuts. To go into detail here would take me far too long, but having left half-way through a tour of India and not picked two of their best players for this tournament, seemingly for revenge, it is not surprising some fancy Ireland to knock them out.
Their captain is 23-year-old Jason Holder, and he will be praying Chris Gayle shows his recent T20 form rather than continue his run of one 50 in his last 17 ODI innings.
With Sunil Narine also not available, there are very few reasons to have any confidence in the West Indies challenging.
It will require Gayle, Marlon Samuels, Darren Sammy and Andre Russell to find their range. If you are a West Indies fan, you will hope they find it against Ireland. Otherwise, they might yet reach a new low.
Pakistan
Missing three of their best bowlers in Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Hafeez and Junaid Khan, it seems impossible for Pakistan to repeat their 1992 triumph Down Under.
Unusually, their batting looks the stronger suit with elder statesmen Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shahid Afridi clear threats.
An opening fixture against India will be a great start to the tournament, but it's hard to see them proving much of a threat unless Afridi fires with bat and ball.
The rest
In the last six months Zimbabwe have been whitewashed in an ODI series by Bangladesh and beaten Australia.
Their two warm-up matches saw them have New Zealand 157-7 before rain intervened, and after that they chased down 280 against Sri Lanka with seven wickets and 28 balls remaining.
If they can maintain that form then they will be eyeing three wins out of six which might take them through.
Ireland have starred in the past two World Cups and will be eyeing wins against West Indies and Zimbabwe.
That opening fixture against Chris Gayle and co is huge for Ireland who must feel that a quarter-final place is a huge possibility. Recent form is not as consistent as it needs to be, but there is plenty of experience to expect that a couple of wins, if not more, is achievable.
The complete unknowns are the UAE, but having beaten Afghanistan 3-1 in a recent series, they will fancy at least one win in a group where only South Africa and India stand out.
Predictions
Winner: New Zealand
Dark horse: Sri Lanka
Top run-scorer: David Warner
Top wicket-taker: Mitchell Starc
Quarter-finals:
Australia v. West Indies - Australia win
New Zealand v. Pakistan - New Zealand win
Sri Lanka v. India - Sri Lanka win
England v. South Africa - South Africa win
Final:
Unless they meet in the semis, Australia v. New Zealand
Dream XI:
Amla, Sharma, Kohli, Sangakkara, De Villiers, Warner, Afridi, Faulkner, Johnson, Starc, Steyn
I admit this is hardly going to entice you to keep reading, but I hope seeing me badly predict what will happen at the Cricket World Cup is worth doing.
With a rough guide to the big teams, predictions for the tournament, Lamy's guaranteed-to-fail bets and my Dream XI, hopefully this blog will be as sharp and dynamic as a Glenn Maxwell cameo.
Group A
England
Australia
New Zealand
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
Scotland
England
Judging by the form guide, England are in the group of death. That's not saying much as there are only two groups, but it wouldn't be a World Cup without the obligatory group of death for us all to pore over in giddy excitement.
Dropping Alastair Cook will help their chances, but too much attention was paid on Cook's poor form. England's problems are much deeper.
The recent tri-series showed a welcome return of top order runs, but in the last decade England have only scored 300 on 21 occasions. Other than against Bangladesh, their highest score is 340.
India, in contrast, have scored 300 on 53 occasions.
At least if Ian Bell continues his good form, England fans will be in such a massive state of elation and satisfaction that they won't even notice the routine hammering being handed out.
The bowling is slightly less of a concern, with James Anderson one of the best with the new ball. But with nothing other than right-arm fast-medium and right-arm off spin, containing sides on good pitches will be really difficult.
Assuming England will make it to the quarter-finals is not a clever idea. Bangladesh and Afghanistan will both think they can win and Scotland seem to have the Midas touch under Paul Collingwoodl
However, should they get through as expected, as long as they avoid South Africa in the quarter-finals, England should not be worried by who they face.
Australia
A huge, hard-hitting batting line-up who are all in form. Two fast, slingy, wicket-taking left-arm bowlers. Confidence in abundance. Non-stop-winning this season and home conditions.
In terms of a build-up, Australia couldn't be in a much better place.
There are some injury concerns though. Captain Michael Clarke is desperately trying to get himself fit which is taking up a lot of attention. Key all-rounder James Faulkner is also an injury doubt. His absence would be a bigger blow than losing Clarke.
The only other concern is the lack of a world-class spinner, but that is a position most sides are in. Distractions over Clarke's fitness appear to be the only way for the Aussies to lose their momentum, unless David Warner decides to try and punch Joe Root in the opening fixture.
New Zealand
Another team with a long batting line-up and players in form. Like Australia, New Zealand go into the tournament full of confidence and with home advantage.
Kane Williamson's last 16 ODI scores read: 71, 77, 65, 60, 88, 10, 70*, 46, 123, 97, 15, 103, 26, 97, 54, 112.
So just the 12 scores over 50.
Brendon McCullum is breaking records, Ross Taylor is in great touch, Corey Anderson has the second-fastest international ton of all time and wicket-keeper Luke Ronchi recently whacked 170* off 99 balls.
The bowling attack has a lot of depth to it as well with left-arm and right-arm options in the pace and spin department.
A lack of quality reserve batsmen could be a worry, but for the first time in a while New Zealand go into this tournament as strong contenders rather than dark horses.
Sri Lanka
Speaking of dark horses, Sri Lanka are very much under the radar. A lot depends on the fitness of Lasith Malinga.
If he can find his form in the group stages, Sri Lanka will be a tough side to beat. The experienced Tillakaratne Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene all come into the tournament in-form and knowing this is their last World Cup.
The bowling has suffered recently in New Zealand and against India. But Sachithra Senanayake and Rangana Herath are decent spin options, and it was only last year that Malinga and Nuwan Kulasekara bowled brilliantly to take Sri Lanka to victory in the World T20 final.
At least nine of that side could start this tournament.
The lack of a settled opener alongside Dilshan is a concern, but Sri Lanka have excellent World Cup records. In their last six tournaments in the 50 over and 20 over World Cups, they have only failed to reach the final once. That includes being runners-up in the 2007 and 2011 50 over events.
The rest
Playing outside the sub-continent will make life hard for Bangladesh and Afghanistan.
Bangladesh know that one win against a major nation could see them through and they come into the tournament with some confidence having whitewashed Zimbabwe, although that was a few months ago now.
Left-arm spinner Taijul Islam has made a cracking start to his career, Mominul Haque has four Test hundreds from 12 matches and there is experience and the potential for explosive displays from Tamim Iqbal, Shakib Al Hasan and Mashrafe Mortaza.
Afghanistan are extremely hit-and-miss and will not go down wondering. Their recent form against fellow Associate nations is respectable, and if Hamid Hassan stays fit they have a fast bowler who can cause damage.
Scotland are the weakest side in the group, but having Paul Collingwood on-board has galvanised them. This includes a staggering 179 win over Ireland in a warm-up match followed by a three run loss to the West Indies after a late collapse.
Group B
South Africa
India
West Indies
Pakistan
Ireland
Zimbabwe
UAE
South Africa
Hashim Amla, Ab De Villiers and Dale Steyn and would get into any side at the moment, with Imran Tahir not far behind.
The batting is strong and the bowling attack is arguably the best around.
But with South Africa there is so much more to it than just their side, having never won a knockout match in this event.
That should change this time, but they will almost certainly have a tough quarter-final contest.
The issue for them is they are missing a James Faulkner figure. Their batting and bowling is a player light. Farhaan Behardien as the seventh batsman and fifth/sixth bowler looks the weak link in the side. If he plays well, though, South Africa will feel really confident of contesting the final.
India
Reigning World Cup and Champions Trophy champions. It seems ludicrous that you can get longer odds on India to win than England.
But India have fallen into the trap of touring Australia before a World Cup, and having not won a single match on tour and with a lot more hotel rooms to check-in to, it is hard to see how they can rouse themselves.
There is hope, of course. The batsmen have enviable records on paper - Virat Kohli is probably the best ODI batsman in the world, Rohit Sharma has two double hundreds in the format and MS Dhoni can provide inspirational leadership and destructive late-order hitting.
No total is safe if India get going.
The problem is, they don't appear like they are going to. Their bowlers take a pasting in all formats, and over three knock-out matches you would fancy one side will hit a massive total.
India won their last global tournament in England. But this, surely, is too much to ask.
West Indies
Disarray and West Indies go together like Homer Simpson and donuts. To go into detail here would take me far too long, but having left half-way through a tour of India and not picked two of their best players for this tournament, seemingly for revenge, it is not surprising some fancy Ireland to knock them out.
Their captain is 23-year-old Jason Holder, and he will be praying Chris Gayle shows his recent T20 form rather than continue his run of one 50 in his last 17 ODI innings.
With Sunil Narine also not available, there are very few reasons to have any confidence in the West Indies challenging.
It will require Gayle, Marlon Samuels, Darren Sammy and Andre Russell to find their range. If you are a West Indies fan, you will hope they find it against Ireland. Otherwise, they might yet reach a new low.
Pakistan
Missing three of their best bowlers in Saeed Ajmal, Mohammad Hafeez and Junaid Khan, it seems impossible for Pakistan to repeat their 1992 triumph Down Under.
Unusually, their batting looks the stronger suit with elder statesmen Younis Khan, Misbah-ul-Haq and Shahid Afridi clear threats.
An opening fixture against India will be a great start to the tournament, but it's hard to see them proving much of a threat unless Afridi fires with bat and ball.
The rest
In the last six months Zimbabwe have been whitewashed in an ODI series by Bangladesh and beaten Australia.
Their two warm-up matches saw them have New Zealand 157-7 before rain intervened, and after that they chased down 280 against Sri Lanka with seven wickets and 28 balls remaining.
If they can maintain that form then they will be eyeing three wins out of six which might take them through.
Ireland have starred in the past two World Cups and will be eyeing wins against West Indies and Zimbabwe.
That opening fixture against Chris Gayle and co is huge for Ireland who must feel that a quarter-final place is a huge possibility. Recent form is not as consistent as it needs to be, but there is plenty of experience to expect that a couple of wins, if not more, is achievable.
The complete unknowns are the UAE, but having beaten Afghanistan 3-1 in a recent series, they will fancy at least one win in a group where only South Africa and India stand out.
Predictions
Winner: New Zealand
Dark horse: Sri Lanka
Top run-scorer: David Warner
Top wicket-taker: Mitchell Starc
Quarter-finals:
Australia v. West Indies - Australia win
New Zealand v. Pakistan - New Zealand win
Sri Lanka v. India - Sri Lanka win
England v. South Africa - South Africa win
Final:
Unless they meet in the semis, Australia v. New Zealand
Dream XI:
Amla, Sharma, Kohli, Sangakkara, De Villiers, Warner, Afridi, Faulkner, Johnson, Starc, Steyn
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